What’s the challenge?

De-carbonisation without attention to vulnerable and affected groups is likely to damage communities and areas. Transport, energy, farming and manufacturing are all planned to transform rapidly in the next 20 years. 

Scotland is world leading in planning for a Just Transition so that disadvantaged groups may benefit from the low carbon transition. Yet Scotland has not developed a country-wide model for how it will achieve equitable outcomes during the low-carbon transition or how these will be measured.

Our goals

Our objective is to provide a representative Theory of Change for Scotland, covering all sectors of interest and measures for the Just Transition Commission to monitor the extent to which the Scottish Government is achieving its aims. To do this, we will pull together disparate plans and strategies, provide a vision for what might work, and provide a framework for accountability.

What are we doing?

To ensure that the voices of vulnerable and affected groups are heard, we conducted 12 interviews with a range of perspectives, from gamekeepers to unions. We have facilitated several workshops with the Just Transition Commissioners to co-develop and validate a Theory of Change for Scotland. We are developing measures from the Theory of Change, and matching these with data sources, to provide a monitoring framework. 

This will then be validated and tested with an example from Grangemouth, Falkirk, as a use case.

How this fits into our work

The Tavistock has an active and abiding interest in protecting the environment, aiming to reach net zero by 2035, and holds ISO14001 certification. The Tavistock Institute also has a long history of engagement with carbon-intensive industries, including coal mines. We understand that transitioning without equity can devastate communities. The climate emergency means that reaching net zero is a huge global priority. Yet, if the benefits and costs of the transition aren’t shared equitably, new inequalities will arise, social cohesion will be damaged, and resistance to decarbonisation will grow. 

Partners

Edinburgh Innovations (University of Edinburgh)

Funder

The Scottish Government

Related clients

ClimateXChange, South Yorkshire Sustainability Centre (University of Sheffield), Omved Gardens

Project team